Obama’s veepstakes

Spend a little time with Barack Obama on his wide-open vice president hunt. There are plenty of plausible candidates, and the eventual choice could easily be somebody nobody is talking about. Why the unpredictability? In part, it’s because a veep search usually focuses on the runner-up in the primary, but in this case almost nobody believes the runner-up will get chosen.

But the main reason is that Obama is an unconventional candidate. He has novel strengths -- enormous appeal to the young, African Americans and some crossover Republicans -- and he also has potential weaknesses with usually solid Democratic Party constituencies: white blue-collar Democrats, women and Jews.

So Obama has to decide: A veep who fills in a weakness (like Joe Biden) or one who accentuates a strength (like Michael Bloomberg)? To make things trickier, the veep candidates with the biggest upside also carry the biggest risk.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-New York

Appeals to: Older white women who dislike Obama but don’t despise him

Alienates: Independents, Republican crossovers, misogynists

Risk factor: Husband Bill buck-raking, possibly still tomcatting

Bottom Line: Cold day in hell

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Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, D-Kansas

Appeals to: Women who aren’t Clinton die-hards

Alienates: Clinton die-hards who believe that any non-Hillary woman is a slap in the face

Risk factor: No foreign policy experience, so-so public speaker

Bottom Line: Non-Clinton-supporting feminists probably aren’t a big enough constituency

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Sen. Jack Reed, D-Rhode Island

Appeals to: Veterans, Catholics, intellectuals, foreign policy voters

Alienates: Moderates? (Reed is liberal)

Risk factor: Low -- he’s a former Army Ranger and highly respected foreign policy expert

Bottom line: Not a bipartisan pick but lots of military/foreign policy cred; combines the demeanor of a professor with the name of an action hero

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Sen. Joe Biden, D-Delaware

Appeals to: White men, security moms, foreign policy/experience voters, fans of the verbally incontinent

Alienates: Indian Americans (“You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.”)

Risk factor: Vetted, respected, but gaffe prone (see previous)

Bottom Line: Odds-on favorite; would make a strong foreign policy spokesman

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Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Nebraska

Appeals to: Veterans, crossover Republicans, bipartisanship buffs

Alienates: Israel supporters, low-information voters who don’t want a 19th century German philosopher a heartbeat away from the presidency

Risk factor: How does Obama run with a right-wing Republican who disagrees with him on nearly everything?

Bottom Line: Would be very tricky -- what if Obama dies and an anti-abortion, tax-cuts-for-the-rich-loving, global-warming denier is suddenly president?

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Gov. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia

Appeals to: Virginians (or so it’s claimed), Catholics

Alienates: Nobody

Risk factor: No foreign policy experience, short resume

Bottom line: First-term governor who won on former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner’s coattails - a meh candidate

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Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Missouri

Appeals to: See Kathleen Sebelius

Alienates: See Kathleen Sebelius

Risk factor: Like Obama, a first-term senator

Bottom line: See Kathleen Sebelius

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Sen. Jim Webb, D-Virginia

Appeals to: Veterans, Virginians, Scots-Irish, angry white men, crossover Republicans, Southern Civil War buffs

Alienates: Women, plutocrats who are ripping off the common man

Risk factor: Short-tempered, lone-wolf type

Bottom line: High-risk, high-reward choice

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Former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Georgia

Appeals to: Georgians, moderates, conservatives, Beltway establishment types, white males in need of reassurance

Alienates: Gays, liberals

Risk factor: Everything Nunn has ever done in his life has been about minimizing risk

Bottom line: Expert on nuclear proliferation, could put Georgia into play

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Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Indiana

Appeals to: Clinton supporters, moderates, insomniacs

Alienates: Nobody

Risk factor: So un-risky that his selection would create the risk of a backlash from a bored and disappointed press corps

Bottom line: Low-risk, low-reward choice

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Gov. Bill Richardson, D-New Mexico

Appeals to: New Mexicans, Old Mexicans, goatee aficionados, goofballs

Alienates: Nativists

Risk factor: Surprisingly high -- Richardson is gaffe-prone and less serious than his reputation suggests

Bottom line: Better on paper than in reality

Former Sen. Tom Daschle, D-South Dakota

Appeals to: White males

Alienates: Nobody

Risk factor: Working as a lobbyist, which complicates Obama’s anti-Washington theme

Bottom line: Better candidate for chief of staff

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Gov. Brian Schweitzer, D-Montana

Appeals to: Downscale whites, gun owners, populists

Alienates: Short career in tiny state = few enemies

Risk factor: No foreign policy experience, first-term governor

Bottom line: Jim Webb lite?

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Mayor Michael Bloomberg, I-New York City

Appeals to: Jews, upscale independents, moderate Republicans, the vertically challenged

Alienates: Populists

Risk factor: Little foreign policy experience, on GOP VP lists too, black guy + wealthy Jewish New Yorker might freak out Middle America

Bottom line: Could pour huge sums into campaign; like Webb, huge upside plus huge downside

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Former Vice President Al Gore, D-Tennessee

Appeals to: Democratic partisans, intellectuals

Alienates: Republican partisans, oil, coal and auto industries

Risk factor: Steps on Obama’s “let’s not argue about the past” appeal

Bottom line: Has ruled out a run but might be a good way to consolidate the Democratic base

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Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine

Appeals to: Women, independents, moderate Republicans

Alienates: Misogynists, Clinton die-hards

Risk factor: Black guy + woman = too much change?

Bottom line: Nobody’s discussing Snowe; who knows if she’d take it; but she brings a lot to the table