Inflation fight takes center stage as Warsh warns the Fed still has ‘work to do’ on rates

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Friday that inflation is still too high and suggested the central bank may have to raise interest rates in the coming months to bring it down, a clearer signal than he had sent previously about his economic outlook.

In his first high-profile speech at the Fed’s annual conference at Jackson Hole, Wyo., Warsh acknowledged that recent U.S. data show inflation has cooled a bit, but “they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said. “Otherwise, we have work to do.”

The comments from the Fed chair appeared to reassure Wall Street that fighting inflation remains the priority for the central bank. Warsh did not imply that a rate increase is imminent, but he appeared to dismiss perceptions that inflation is no longer a threat.

He pointed to data showing that inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Warsh replaced Jerome H. Powell in late May after his predecessor’s term ended.

The U.S. stock market held steady after the speech, but expectations are building in the bond market for the Fed to increase interest rates. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which closely tracks expectations for what the Fed will do with its federal funds rate, moved from 4.22% to 4.30%, a sign that investors expect short-term yields to move higher.

Longer-term yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries were mostly flat, suggesting investors aren’t worried that higher rates will be needed for a long stretch of time to fight inflation.

Jon Faust, an economist at Johns Hopkins and a former advisor to Powell, said Warsh succeeded in conveying a tougher approach on inflation while avoiding the kind of detailed guidance from the Fed that he has disparaged.

“He found a way to convey that if necessary he would support raising rates, which is one thing people were concerned about,” Faust said.

Yet Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said the Fed chair has talked tough on inflation before without hiking the Fed’s key rate. His Friday remarks don’t provide any clearer guidance on the timing of any Fed moves, he added.

The Fed chair faces high stakes with his speech as questions swirl around Wall Street about his focus on fighting inflation. At a July 29 news conference, he sowed confusion about whether he would back up his previous tough talk on rising prices with any action, such as lifting the Fed’s short-term rate, which is currently about 3.6%.

Those concerns may have contributed to rising bond yields, which can increase the cost of borrowing for the government and everyone else. Yet Warsh has said he doesn’t want to provide what analysts call “forward guidance” about whether the Fed will increase or cut rates or stay on hold at upcoming meetings. He argues that it limits the Fed’s flexibility by committing it to a specific policy.

Yet some economists have argued that he could say more about his views on Fed policy without tipping his hand about future actions.

Warsh on Friday reiterated his skepticism about providing such guidance or even outlining his broad approach to interest-rate policy.

But he did suggest that interest rates currently aren’t restricting economic activity, pointing to robust business investment in artificial intelligence equipment and infrastructure and strong consumer spending. As a rule of thumb, interest rates often need to be high enough to limit borrowing and spending to cool inflation.

The Fed next meets Sept. 15-16, and Warsh’s remarks don’t necessarily signal the central bank will raise rates then. Wall Street investors now see the chances of a rate increase at the Fed’s meeting as basically a coin flip, according to futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch, up from about one-third before Warsh spoke.

Warsh said inflation data “are more concerning” than trends on the job market, where the unemployment rate is low. He also argued that inflation is unlikely to move back to the target on its own.

Warsh noted that in the past year, 54% of goods and services tracked by the government have seen price increases of 3% or higher. While that is down from the pandemic peak, it is “well above” the 32% that saw such increases in the two decades before the pandemic.

Inflation cooled in June and July after spiking in May from soaring gas prices, yet it remains above the central bank’s target. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, it was 3.7% in July.

Warsh also sought to clear up some areas of confusion that arose after his remarks at the July 29 news conference, when he made vague remarks about what metric the Fed would use to track inflation and whether short-term interest rates were the Fed’s main tool to combat higher prices.

On Friday, he specified that short-term interest rates are the Fed’s “predominant tool,” and added that the central bank is using the same gauge it has long followed to measure inflation.

Previous Fed chairs have often used speeches at Jackson Hole to address broad questions about interest-rate policy and the economy, or to signal upcoming changes in their approach. In 2022, with pandemic-era inflation having soared to 9.1%, Powell signaled the Fed would continue to sharply raise interest rates in a fight against runaway prices, and he acknowledged that such maneuvers would bring “pain” to consumers and businesses.

Most analysts expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its mid-September meeting. Wall Street investors, however, are betting the central bank will increase rates by December, according to futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch.

Questions about Warsh’s approach have intensified amid President Trump’s continued calls for lower interest rates. While Trump has continued to defend Warsh, whom he appointed, the president has criticized other Fed officials for supporting higher rates.

Trump has also renewed his efforts to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden. Replacing Cook would enable Trump to appoint a majority of the seven-member board. Trump tried to fire her last year but was temporarily blocked by the Supreme Court.

Longer-term interest rates have steadily risen in recent weeks because of a range of factors, including burgeoning U.S. government deficits and outsize borrowing by tech firms building AI infrastructure.

The rate on the 30-year Treasury bond reached the highest level in 19 years last week, prompting an unusual effort by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to buy back bonds and push the yields lower.

Rugaber writes for the Associated Press.