Who’s responsible for steep homicide decline in California?

The number of homicides in some of California’s biggest cities dropped to remarkably low levels in 2025, a piece of good news that immediately touched off debate about who, or what, was responsible.

It’s safe to say that while politicians in both parties claimed credit for improved safety, there won’t ever be a definitive explanation for what caused the decline in killings in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland and other cities.

Los Angeles tallied 230 homicides in 2025, as my colleagues Libor Jany and Richard Winton reported. Although that number is not final, because investigators are continuing to assess some deaths, it would probably represent the fewest killings since 1966, when LA. had 30% fewer residents. Measuring per capita, it was the city’s safest year since 1959.

Similarly, San Francisco counted just 28 homicides in 2025, a 20% decline from the 35 killings it had the year prior. It marked the Bay city’s lowest total since 1954. And Oakland logged 66 homicides through Dec. 28, on pace to become the lowest annual total since 1967. That’s a huge decline from the 125 homicides that rocked the city in 2023.

A positive national crime trend

Those figures mirror what’s being reported in cities across America. A spike in violence that accompanied the start of the COVID pandemic in 2020 has reversed itself sharply. The numbers don’t only reflect a drop in homicide rates but also lower overall rates of violence. In Oakland, for instance, crimes categorized as violent — including homicide, aggravated assault, rape and robbery — declined by one-quarter from 2024 to 2025.

Axios quoted a crime statistics expert as saying that the U.S., as a whole, was on pace for the the largest one-year drop in murders ever recorded.

New York City and Memphis recorded nearly a 20% drop in murders compared with 2024, and Chicago recorded a drop of almost 28%.

Authorities pinned the high urban homicide rates of the 1980s and 1990s, in part, to turf battles over the crack cocaine business. Although the sale of other illicit drugs, like fentanyl, has emerged in recent years, the rates of violence associated with them have not been as high.

The national Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, cautioned analysts not to read too much into the homicide figures and not to draw conclusions without more information.

“After reaching an historic low in 2014, the national homicide rate spiked by 23% just two years later,” the Council on Criminal Justice says on its website. “While there are plausible theories for that turnabout, and for the volatile patterns over the past five years, the drivers of these trends are poorly understood. Greater investment in rigorous research is critical to shed more light on the changing crime landscape and to craft effective crime control approaches for the future.”

As my colleagues reported earlier, some experts in L.A. credited the return of social services that declined during the pandemic. The LAPD warned that fewer resources and manpower risk triggering an uptick in crime. But the latest data show killings have fallen even as the LAPD staffing has declined and seen officers conduct fewer traffic stops and interactions with the public than in past years.

The White House takes credit

When asked about the decline, the White House said in a statement: “It’s amazing what happens when you have a President committed to enforcing the law and punishing criminals. President Trump’s policies are Making America Safe Again from California to DC and everywhere in between — and he’s just getting started.” That echoed a statement from Republicans in the House.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass issued a statement of her own, saying her comprehensive approach to public safety made a difference. She said her office of Community Safety “has served thousands of Angelenos through the Gang Reduction and Youth Development program, case management, connections to mental health treatment and drug treatment, reentry services and community programming like Summer Night Lights that served more than 110,000 Angelenos across the city this past year.”

She scoffed at Republican claims, saying they “are famous for voting to cut funding to the very programs that keep people safe.”

Today’s top stories

Hundreds of survivors gather in Palisades Village to commemorate the anniversary of the Palisades fire.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

Anniversary of the January fires

• Survivors in Palisades and Altadena marked the anniversary of the deadly fires with anger and mourning.
• Locals wanted to rebuild Pacific Palisades and Altadena. Then the big investors moved in.
• Complaints over insurers’ handling of L.A. wildfire claims prompt a flurry of bills.
• Reality TV star Spencer Pratt announced his run for L.A. mayor at the “They Let Us Burn” event in Pacific Palisades.
• The Pasadena Temple community is bigger than ever, a year after the Eaton fire took its synagogue.
• “After the fire took my home, John Irving’s books became one,” writes “Dark Winds” showrunner John Wirth.
• These images document the year of recovery after the Palisades fire and the Eaton fire.

Trial of Nick Reiner

• Defense attorney Alan Jackson stepped down as counsel for Nick Reiner, who faces two counts of murder in the brutal December stabbings of his parents, Rob and Michele Reiner.
• The Los Angeles County public defender’s office will instead represent Nick Reiner.
• The change of counsel postponed Reiner’s arraignment until Feb. 23.

Trump’s operation in Venezuela

• What’s next in deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s criminal case.
• Trump’s former advisor said Russia offered U.S. free rein in Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine.

The fight for Warner Bros.

• Warner Bros. Discovery once again nixed a bid from Paramount, citing the enormous debt load that Paramount would need to take on.
• The Warner Bros. board is seemingly upholding its signed agreement with streaming giant Netflix.

ICE shootings

• An ICE officer killed a Minneapolis driver in a deadly start to Trump’s latest immigration operation.
• California lawmakers decried the shooting. One called it a ‘public execution.’
• An off duty ICE agent also killed somebody in L.A. on New Years Eve. What actually happened?

What else is going on

• Newsom’s final State of the State speech will be steeped in a rosy view of California. He’ll deliver it this morning.
• The shooter who killed two and injured 13 in a notorious SoCal school rampage could now go free.
• The homelessness on L.A.’s Skid Row is the fault of Democrats, says GOP gubernatorial candidate Sheriff Chad Bianco.
• A Torrance shopping center sold for a record price on strong demand for humble neighborhood locations.

Commentary and opinions

• Tim Walz isn’t the only governor plagued by fraud. Columnist Anita Chabria argues Newsom may be targeted next.
• Trump’s 626 overseas strikes aren’t “America First.” Columnist Jackie Calmes asks, what’s his real agenda?
• Yes, California should tax billionaires’ wealth. Columnist Michael Hiltzik explains why.

This morning’s must-reads

California

For Subscribers

California created havens for gang ‘dropouts.’ It made prisons even more violent

A system designed to protect state inmates who wish to leave gangs has backfired, leading to increased violence fueled by so-called ‘dropout’ gangs formed by prisoners who defected from other groups.

Jan. 8, 2026

Other must-reads

• The biggest snubs and surprises of the 2026 Actor Awards nominations.
• The full list of 2026 Actor Awards nominations.
• Inside Meow Wolf L.A., a psychedelic experiential art collective that celebrates the movies.
• Long Beach’s Casita Bookstore is relocating after 2025 pushed it to the brink.

For your downtime

Meow Wolf artist Emmanuelle John is working on multiple pieces for Meow Wolf Los Angeles.

(Gabriela Campos / For The Times)

Going out

• Dining: Treat your taste buds at these 31 newcomers from the 101 Best Restaurants list.
• Exhibits: Check out a fish-shaped spaceship and other cool things at Meow Wolf L.A.
• Music: Jam out with live music at West Hollywood’s Sun Rose Hotel.

Staying in

• Books: Bury your nose in the week’s bestselling books.
• Movies: Prepare for “Avengers: Doomsday” by binge-watching the Marvel series.
• 🥗 Keep the holiday baking going with this recipe for Hojicha cookies.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and jigsaw games.

And finally ... from our archives

Front cover of the Los Angeles Times on Jan. 9, 2016.

(Los Angeles Times)

On Jan. 8, 2016, Mexican authorities captured and arrested the notorious drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Jim Rainey, staff reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, fast break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend writer
June Hsu, editorial fellow
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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