Republicans, weirdly, might be feeling Eric Swalwell’s pain

The two Republicans vying to be the next California governor have for weeks been in the unlikely position of leading the polls to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom in one of the nation’s bluest states. But that may change quickly now that Rep. Eric Swalwell has exited the race.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco only have a shot of winning if as many prominent Democrats as possible remain on the June 2 primary ballot. That way, the state’s substantial liberal voting base gets diluted among a platoon of Democratic hopefuls, pushing the two conservatives into the November runoff.

As the putative front-runner in a large Democratic field, Swalwell bolstered that equation. But now, his exit muddles it. Don’t be shocked if some wealthy Republican mounts an “independent expenditure” campaign (with, importantly, no spending limits) to bolster at least one of the GOP’s two mainstays. Because, if just one Democrat emerges from the June 2 primary to make the runoff, either Republican challenger would be toast in November.

What led to Swalwell’s departure

If you found yourself happily out of news range over the weekend, you might have missed that Swalwell “suspended” (a.k.a. killed) his campaign after several former employees from his House office accused him of sexual harassment and assault. On Monday, he pledged to resign his seat in Congress, representing a district in the southeast San Francisco Bay Area. He now could be fending off criminal charges.

So who benefits politically from Swalwell’s epic plotz?

Not the two Republicans who led recent polls, with support of well under 20% of voters each. Bianco and Hilton have managed to lead mostly because the Democrats had split their votes among eight prominent candidates — Swalwell, billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former state Controller Betty Yee and Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Porter stands the best chance of collecting former Swalwell supporters. That’s because she’s in the same political lane as her former House colleague: a fixture on MSN and other lefty outlets, where she thrills partisans with her rhetorical evisceration of President Trump.

Paving the way for California’s first woman governor?

Porter, an outspoken feminist, also stands in a good position to draw in women defecting Swalwell-land. It seems likely that tales of Swalwell forcing himself on his young female employees will make some of those voters determined to pick a distinctly un-male candidate.

That could pave the way for Porter, 52, to become California’s first female governor. Yee could also win that distinction. But the former controller, despite her air of competence and decency, hasn’t been able to attract support above the low single digits.

Xavier Becerra, left, Steve Hilton and Matt Mahan participate in the California gubernatorial candidate debate Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco.

(Laure Andrillon / Associated Press)

The 68-year-old Steyer’s wealth has enabled him to pay for, by far, the greatest advertising presence on television. Some voters like his pledge as a political newcomer to throttle the status quo. But the California electorate has repeatedly rejected uber-rich candidates who have no history in elected office.

“Both Porter and Steyer also have significant biographical weaknesses, and it’s easy to see how donors and party leaders might be nervous about either one of them,” said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at USC and UC Berkeley. Porter’s biggest negative came out last year with revelations about her verbally abusing staff members, including one incident caught on video.

If Democrats want to go with a more centrist approach, they might turn to Mahan or Villaraigosa, Schnur said, or look to others who have languished in the polls.

Another factor worth watching as the June primary grows ever closer: Do Swalwell’s big political assets — namely donation and endorsements — move to another candidate? Endorsements from U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff and two powerful unions — the Service Employees International Union and the California Teachers Association — could tip the balance in a race that has remained extremely tight.

Today’s top stories

Los Angeles Unified School District parents, students, educators and community members show their support for teachers.

(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)

LAUSD strike averted

• LAUSD avoided an unprecedented strike from teachers, school support staff and principals just hours before schools were to open Tuesday morning.
• Employees have won pay raises and other concessions in the tentative agreements. Local 99, which represents some of the lowest paid union members in the school system, gets a huge financial boost.

Frustration over high World Cup ticket prices

• Fans paying thousands for 2026 World Cup tickets were shocked to learn their seats are not in traditional premium areas.
• FIFA assigned seats after purchase, with Category 1 tickets in less desirable locations after a new premium ticket level was introduced.

Paramount’s proposed Warner Bros. acquisition

• Hollywood stars are lining up against Paramount’s proposed takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, expressing fears that the blockbuster merger would devastate the industry and shrink production jobs.
• A letter opposing it was signed by nearly 1,000 artists and movie creators, including Ben Stiller, Bryan Cranston, Noah Wyle, Joaquin Phoenix, Kristen Stewart and Jane Fonda.

Detecting potholes in Los Angeles

• Waze and Waymo announced a program that will use Waymo’s self-driving cars to better detect potholes in the city.
• The number of potholes spiked in L.A. early this year after an intense rainy season soaked the city.

What else is going on

• Swalwell supporters scramble after he drops out of governor’s race. Who will benefit?
• Bacteria, chemicals and trash runoff could make SoCal beaches a hazard after rain, officials warn.
• L.A. kept charging him more for a parking ticket — even after it was dismissed.
• Katy Perry denies Ruby Rose’s sexual assault allegations, calling them “dangerous reckless lies.”

Commentary and opinions

• Pope Leo isn’t afraid of Donald Trump. We shouldn’t be either, writes columnist Gustavo Arellano.
• Trump says his social media post depicted him as a doctor, not Jesus. Columnist and Catholic school alum Steve Lopez feels uniquely qualified to weigh in.
• Jokes about Newsom’s dyslexia reveal a harmful, persistent myth, argues guest contributor Sherri Helvie.

This morning’s must read

Hollywood Inc.

Hollywood offshoring: A look at who’s winning the global production race

As other countries have built up their incentive programs, production infrastructure and crew expertise, filming has increasingly moved overseas.

April 13, 2026

Other must reads

• These Latino poets explore the concept of sovereignty — or, what it means to belong to yourself.
• Mexico’s new top diplomat: A gay millennial with deep knowledge of the U.S.

For your downtime

(Los Angeles Times photo illustration; photographs by Danielle Dorsey)

Going out

• Festivals: Vegan crunch wraps, prawn chip nachos and frosé. Here’s what to eat and drink during Coachella Weekend 2.
• Art: In a new monument for South-Central, Lauren Halsey cements her loved ones as landmarks.
• Travel: It’s time to take a road trip to Carrizo Plain, which still blooms with spring colors.

Staying in

• Books: Emma Grede is rich, self-made and wants women to boldly talk about money (and make more) in her new book, “Start With Yourself.”
• Recipe: Here’s a recipe for cornmeal-fried spring onion with chile aioli.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and jigsaw games.

A question for you: Are you planning on leaving California for another state? If so, tell us why.

Chris says, “My grown son thinks his job prospects will be better outside the US, and I’m just sick of the chaos. So I’m investigating getting Canadian citizenship through a new law that would allow me to claim it through my Canadian great-grandparents. Or applying for Greek citizenship through my Greek grandparents. Either way, I hope my son could then apply for citizenship too, or at least a work visa, through me.”

Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

And finally ... your photo of the day

The Baldwin Hills home of Felema Ye.

(Jerald Cooper / For The Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times contributor Jerald Cooper at architect Felema Ye’s Baldwin Hills home, a representation of Black postmodernism in motion.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Jim Rainey, staff reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, fast break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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