El Niño is back: What a ‘very strong’ climate pattern could mean for California this winter

It’s been a little over a month since El Niño arrived, and California may be in for a wet and wild winter.

Oceanic conditions have rapidly changed in recent months, giving scientists greater confidence of a strong or very strong El Niño later this year, my colleague Rong-Gong Lin II reports.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said earlier this month there’s a 97% chance that El Niño will be either “strong” or “very strong” over a three-month period ending this December.

El Niño is associated with some of California’s most memorably destructive winter seasons.

The strong El Niño of winter 2023-24 saw well above average rainfall across coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation in coastal Northern California, the state Department of Conservation said.

During three of the four very strong El Niños in the global record, downtown Los Angeles received significantly more rain than average. In two — 1982-83 and 1997-98 — downtown L.A. got more than double its usual yearly rainfall.

This year, forecasters are saying it may end up being one of the strongest such events on record.

Let’s take a look at the weather phenomenon’s potential effects.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a pattern that typically emerges every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, according to NOAA.

It is one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth, capable of reshaping global weather and affecting rainfall and drought.

(Paul Duginski / Los Angeles Times)

Although it’s characterized by warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, it will also increase the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming, Lin reports.

What are its potential impacts?

El Niño typically brings different weather effects across the world, depending on the season.

As warm water extends off Mexico, Central America and northern South American during an El Niño, that usually causes jet-stream energy in the atmosphere to bring more stormy weather than usual to the southern United States, including Southern California, Texas and Florida, during the winter, said Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

For Southern California, it would mean a higher chance of above-average rainfall, risking a winter of landslides and high-tide flooding.

The very strong El Niño of 2015-16 brought “record coastal erosion along many California beaches,” the state Coastal Commission said.

This year’s El Niño is expected to prolong an already existing marine heat wave — currently in effect for reasons unrelated to El Niño — off Southern California.

Scientists are also raising alarms over the effects of warmer ocean waters on ocean life.

“In the near future, we may expect to see an increase in tropical or warm subtropical species, which may include increased shark sightings off of the Southern California coast,” said Nate Jaros, the Aquarium of the Pacific’s vice president of animal care for fish and invertebrates. “In very rare cases, even whale sharks have visited off Catalina, including in the 2015-2016 El Niño events.”

Marine mammals and other migratory species also may move closer to shore, “because they’re going to where their food is,” said Andrew Leising, a research oceanographer at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center.

In past strong El Niños, scientists have observed decreased plankton — an important food source for marine animals — and an increased probability of harmful algal blooms.

Previous strong El Niños also have brought a lower abundance, and a more northward shift, of market squid, Leising told The Times.

“We often have seen in the past with El Niños reduced productivity of California sea lions,” he added, “and the pups are often smaller.”

Here’s more of our El Niño coverage:

A ‘super’ El Niño is brewing. Experts fear historic dangers from ‘extraordinary’ weather

Strong El Niño now a virtual certainty, forecasters say. What it means for California

El Niño has arrived: 5 ways California could get pummeled

Today’s top stories

An 8-year-old boy was killed and four others injured after a head-on collision in Riverside on May 16, 2023.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

A proposed bill would allow insurers to track your driving habits

• The new Sacramento bill promises lower premiums for drivers who opt in and prove safer habits over time, but privacy and consumer advocates warn the proposal forces motorists to choose between data protection and affordable coverage.
• Safety groups and a booming telematics industry say the measure could reshape rates for 27 million California drivers.

Why some patients are pushing to change Kaiser’s medical dispute process

• Plaintiffs’ attorneys, legislators and patients say that Kaiser’s private and confidential process for arbitrating legal disputes over medical care still has key flaws that favor Kaiser over patients bringing malpractice cases.
• Kaiser defended its arbitration system, saying in a statement that it was fair for both patients and for the nonprofit.

The 2026 World Cup was a rousing success for FIFA, U.S. and fans

• The largest, longest and most complex World Cup in history came to a close Sunday, with Spain beating Argentina 1-0 in extra time.
• Attendance topped 6.8 million, a World Cup record averaging more than 65,000 fans a game.

What else is going on

• More water pipes burst in Venice and Hollywood as Sunset Strip repairs enter Day 4.
• Sausalito’s city manager was reportedly found on someone’s yacht and arrested on suspicion of burglary.
• Southern California will face a double threat this week of a dangerous heat wave and hazardous high waves along the coast.
• California’s push to ban technology used for “ghost guns” has found an unlikely foe in Hollywood.
• Here’s how the DOJ has redefined its civil rights mission and targeted California.
• The injured bald eagle rescued near Big Bear is believed to be Jackie, one-half of the beloved pair featured in a longtime nest livestream.

Commentary and opinions

• Restaurant critic Bill Addison writes about the most rewarding coffee-drinking adventure of his life.
• Californians have soured on Newsom’s push to ban gas-powered cars, writes columnist George Skelton.
• Voodoo, exorcism and a killer at age 7. Meet Colorado’s Republican nominee for governor.

This morning’s must-read

Climate & Environment

Central Valley farmers reluctantly turn to solar as water supplies dry up

Solar is exploding in the Central Valley as drought-stressed farmers look to alternatives.

July 20, 2026

Other must-reads

• U.S. airstrikes at sea are killing Mexican citizens.
• This is how Tennessee tries to woo Paramount and other companies away from California.

For your downtime

(Autumn Schrock / Visit Oxnard)

Going out

• Travel and experiences: Here are 10 things to do, see and eat right now in SoCal’s most underrated beach town.
• Spas: L.A.’s best new Korean spa is like Wi Spa but with free parking and less crowding (for now).
• Restaurants: L.A.’s must-try kebab master is back in Glendale with a new dining room, menu and a full bar.

Staying in

• Books: Is this the book of the year? Colson Whitehead’s Harlem trilogy meets its perfect, gritty end.
• Recipe: Here’s a recipe for the perfect summer dessert made of leftover fruit.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, Sudoku, word search and jigsaw games.

A question for you: As temperatures rise in SoCal, how do you stay cool?

Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

And finally ... your photo of the day

Shuting Zang, 28, is photographed on her wedding day at San Francisco City Hall, where Marilyn Monroe and Joe DiMaggio tied the knot in 1954.

(Sarahbeth Maney/For The Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times contributor Sarahbeth Maney at San Francisco City Hall, one of the most popular wedding venues in California.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Hailey Branson-Potts, staff writer
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, Fast Break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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