Is Bass flailing? Is Raman for real? 4 things that could decide L.A. mayor’s race

Los Angeles has 49 days before voters will decide the pivotal race for mayor, which pits incumbent Karen Bass against Councilwoman Nithya Raman.

It feels like a short time. But trust me, it’s an eternity.

So for now, here are four things I am watching that could help determine who wins:

How vulnerable is Bass?

If there is one statistic haunting the race, it comes from a UC Berkeley/LA Times poll in late May that asked voters about a November matchup between Bass and Raman. It showed 32% for Raman and 28% for Bass. You cannot take those numbers to the bank, especially in September. But they highlight Bass’ challenges.

The last few months had some bright spots for L.A. The World Cup was a feel-good moment. The D Line subway opening reminded people the city can still do things. But the sour mood that numerous surveys and polls have found about the state of the city does not appear to have magically lifted.

Bass was dealing with headaches all summer — from the Boyle Heights warehouse fire to a rising homeless count to the Sunset Boulevard water main break. But she was also everywhere, using her office to stay in front of the public’s mind in moments of crisis.

Is it enough to erase memories of her moves in the early days of the 2025 firestorms, which were roundly criticized and left her profoundly unpopular?

Bass is far from hemorrhaging. She got the biggest labor endorsements during the primary and will have sizable coffers to remind voters about Raman’s less-than-popular positions. She’s backed by many of the City Council’s leading progressives, and so far no one has defected. In the latest campaign reports, Bass doubled Raman in terms of fundraising.

The last time L.A. voters tossed out an incumbent mayor was 2005. In the primary, Mayor James Hahn came in second place, garnering just 23% of the vote behind Antonio Villaraigosa’s 33%. In the general election, Villaraigosa ousted Hahn in a landslide.

By that measure, Bass goes into November in better shape than Hahn. She came in first in the primary with 34% of the vote.

Now, everyone wants to know how much she can add to that total.

Is the Raman momentum real?

If the conventional wisdom holds, Bass’ tough summer means that Raman gained some momentum. She won several endorsements in recent weeks that brought good headlines, including from the Democratic Socialists of America and labor groups such as Unite Here and the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters. She had what most considered to be a good debate performance against Bass. She’s become a fixture on the TV news, seeming more confident, comfortable and in command than during the rocky primary campaign.

My colleague Gustavo Arellano calls her the “comeback kid,” praising her for “easily scoring off of Bass mishaps.”

For those who think this is a “change election,” it’s easy to look at the landscape and see things falling into place for Raman. She’s generally to the left of Bass in an election year where Democratic progressives are making gains. A UCLA survey showed all-time-low satisfaction with the quality of life in L.A. County. She talks about the big issue driving that dissatisfaction: affordability. She frames her campaign as a grassroots movement against the entrenched corporate and political interests at City Hall.

It’s a compelling package on paper. Yet if that is the political narrative, it would be fair to ask why she didn’t do better in the primary.

Doing the Spencer Pratt math

So how do Bass and Raman build a winning coalition? The conventional wisdom is that it runs through Spencer Pratt, who came in third in the primary carrying wealthy Westside and a scattering of less-than-liberal districts around L.A.

Pratt says both candidates are a mess but seems to be picking his poison.

“A Karen Bass Mayorship is depressing,” he recently wrote. “A Nithya Raman Mayorship is terrifying.”

But Pratt, a Trump-friendly Republican in a deep-blue city, ran on a promise of radical reform at City Hall. Will his supporters really just hold their noses and reelect Bass? Raman’s progressive credentials and DSA backing might make his more conservative, wealthy voters do just that. But other elements of his coalition could be willing to roll the dice in a new direction.

Fernando Guerra, a professor at Loyola Marymount University, told my colleague Noah Goldberg that Raman might be wise not to simply focus on capturing the Pratt vote.

Perhaps she’d have more luck trying to turn Bass voters on the Eastside rather than stumping around places like Bel-Air and Chatsworth.

Inspiration, not just anger

Can Raman win purely by counting on voter dissatisfaction? I’m dubious.

That becomes clear when you look back at two major L.A. “change elections”: 2005 as well as 1973, when Tom Bradley ousted incumbent Mayor Sam Yorty.

Hahn and Yorty had both worn out their welcomes.

But Bradley and Villaraigosa offered exciting visions of a different Los Angeles. Bradley became L.A.’s first Black mayor, uniting business and labor into an era of epic growth powered by a multiethnic political coalition that survived for decades. Villaraigosa represented the ascendancy of Latinos as a political and cultural force in the city as well as a new generation of leadership.

Their elections made history.

Will 2026 end up being another tipping point?

As we wait, Arellano suggests looking to the patron saints for inspiration.

Pratt’s take is more simple: “God help us.”

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(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)

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Commentary and opinion

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(Kissi Ussuki / For The Times)

• 🎭The 15 most intriguing theater offerings hitting SoCal stages this fall.
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Today’s recipe

(Kirk McKoy / Los Angeles Times)

Nancy Silverton’s chopped salad is refreshing, flavorful and packed with protein. This hearty meal for two, with no cooking required, is made of a mountain of radicchio, iceberg, red onion, halved cherry tomatoes, salami, provolone cheese and chickpeas and tossed in a tangy red wine oregano vinaigrette.

Question for you

What’s your favorite place to see fall colors in California? Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

Photo of the day

Zendaya walks the red carpet during the 78th Emmy Awards.

(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

Games

Here’s today’s mini crossword, plus our other free, daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and jigsaw games.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Jack Dolan, investigative reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, Fast Break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew J. Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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