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Consensus pick Buckley is considered the slam-dunk favorite, but if she has a challenger, it has to be Byrne. Byrne, who has collected a number of critics’ prizes, including from the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and the Globes (in the musical or comedy category), is as versatile as they come, and is a respected veteran enjoying the first nomination of her 30-plus-year career. Still, the gap between the two is formidable in Round 4 of the BuzzMeter.
“The second Buckley let out the primal scream heard ’round the world, she became the front-runner,” writes Robert Daniels. Glenn Whipp agrees: “Jessie Buckley’s powerhouse, sob-inducing turn … has been inevitable since ‘Hamnet’ premiered at Telluride.”
All the panelists picked Buckley, but not all are necessarily rooting for her: “A Rose Byrne surprise win would have me cackling as loudly as I did at ‘If I Had Legs’ ’ high-wire hysterics,” says Amy Nicholson.
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
3. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
4. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
5. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
3. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
4. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
5. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
“The second Buckley let out the primal scream heard ’round the world, she became the front-runner. Maybe there could be a surprise when the envelope is opened — the academy loves Stone — but Buckley gives such a raw, vulnerable performance in body and soul, it’s difficult to conceive of anyone standing in her way.”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
3. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
4. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
5. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
“If there’s anyone who can upset Jessie Buckley, it’s Kate Hudson, finally scoring her second nomination a satisfying 25 years after her first. But I’m not sure anyone can outrank the pure heartbreak of Buckley’s work in ‘Hamnet.’ ”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
3. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
“Of all the upsets I’m rooting for on Oscar night, a Rose Byrne surprise win would have me cackling as loudly as I did at ‘If I Had Legs’ ’ high-wire hysterics.”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
3. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
“The win should go to Critics Choice and Globe winner Jessie Buckley for her deeply felt performance as a grieving mother in ‘Hamnet.’ Her challenger, critics’ favorite Rose Byrne, plays another troubled mother in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.’ But this is Buckley’s to lose.”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
3. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
4. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
5. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
“Despite Chloé Zhao’s shock at the Globes, ‘Hamnet’ has always been a sentimental favorite among awards voters. But Jessie Buckley’s lead actress win is the only sure thing at this point — unless Rose Byrne surges post-Globes, where she won the musical or comedy acting prize to Buckley’s drama acting win.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
3. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
4. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
5. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
“Jessie Buckley’s powerhouse, sob-inducing turn as the ‘child of a forest witch’ who wins Shakespeare’s heart and then must overcome a gut-wrenching loss has been inevitable since ‘Hamnet’ premiered at Telluride.”
