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Ryan Coogler’s boldly original “Sinners” screenplay is the consensus pick in the final round of the 2026 Oscars BuzzMeter. The film is often described as a horror movie, but it’s also a sociopolitically aware, period family-and-community drama with elements of action, crime, the experience of the Jim Crow South, and a deep infusion of 1930s blues music. It’s yet another example of Coogler’s rare ability to illuminate genre in new and deeply personal ways.
Dave Karger says it’s “one of the easiest races to call” for Coogler’s “genre-defying work.” Glenn Whipp writes, “A horror movie with vampires that lays out the everyday terror of life in the Jim Crow South? That’s original.”
Noting that, before this year, Coogler hadn’t been nominated as director or writer before, or as producer of a film he directed, Robert Daniels says, “The academy should honor what might be the most imaginative and celebrated movie experience of the year.”
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. “Sinners”
2. “Sentimental Value”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “It Was Just an Accident”
5. “Blue Moon”
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. “Sinners”
2. “Sentimental Value”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “It Was Just an Accident”
5. “Blue Moon”
“If ‘Sinners’ is winning anywhere, it’s in original screenplay. Despite previously directing five separate actors to nominations, this is the first time Coogler has been nominated in an above-the-line category for a film he helmed. The academy should honor what might be the most imaginative and celebrated movie experience of the year.”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. “Sinners”
2. “Sentimental Value”
3. “It Was Just an Accident”
4. “Marty Supreme”
5. “Blue Moon”
“One of the easiest races to call. Even if it doesn’t end up winning best picture, ‘Sinners’ will have one of several victorious moments here, thanks to Ryan Coogler’s genre-defying work.”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. “Sinners”
2. “Marty Supreme”
3. “Sentimental Value”
4. “It Was Just an Accident”
5. “Blue Moon”
“ ‘Sinners’ ’ 16 nominations set a new Oscars record — but alas, I fear that factoid will be its most substantial win. A statuette here would be nice, though.”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. “Sinners”
2. “Sentimental Value”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “It Was Just an Accident”
5. “Blue Moon”
“The writers go their own way. The front-runner is Ryan Coogler’s bravura period genre mash ‘Sinners,’ followed by ‘The Worst Person in the World’ Oscar nominees Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt for Cannes prizewinner ‘Sentimental Value.’ ”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. “Sinners”
2. “Sentimental Value”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “It Was Just an Accident”
5. “Blue Moon”
“With a record-breaking haul of nominations, ‘Sinners’ will likely scoop up some significant gold, especially for categories like screenplay and score.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. “Sinners”
2. “Sentimental Value”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “It Was Just an Accident”
5. “Blue Moon”
“A horror movie with vampires that lays out the everyday terror of life in the Jim Crow South? That’s original.”
