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“Sinners” set the new nominations standard this year, with 16 nods, two more than the previous record.
Still, the panel – and Las Vegas bettors – expect 13-time nominee “One Battle After Another” to take best picture: Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is the BuzzMeter consensus pick to win the Oscars’ top prize, with “Sinners” the consensus runner-up.
“None is likely to beat the frontrunner, the rollicking ‘One Battle,’ ” writes Anne Thompson. Katie Walsh says it “feels pre-ordained by precursors, critics’ prizes, and general sentiment.” “I’d be shocked if ‘One Battle’ doesn’t win,” says Robert Daniels.
As to the highest-grossing film in the category by far? “F1” may count Lewis Hamilton, one of the greatest competitive drivers ever as a producer, but this is one race his “F1” will lose. The surprise nominee is a consensus last-place finisher of the 10 nominees.
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Hamnet”
4. “Marty Supreme”
5. “Sentimental Value”
6. “Frankenstein”
7. “The Secret Agent”
8. “Train Dreams”
9. “Bugonia”
10. “F1”
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Hamnet”
4. “Marty Supreme”
5. “Sentimental Value”
6. “The Secret Agent”
7. “Frankenstein”
8. “Bugonia”
9. “Train Dreams”
10. “F1”
“I’d be shocked if ‘One Battle’ doesn’t win. That might seem like an odd proclamation, considering ‘Sinners’ just became the most-nominated film in history, but ‘One Battle’ has that rarefied formula of being an exemplary film by a beloved, overlooked director, which also manages to speak to the moment.”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Hamnet”
4. “Sentimental Value”
5. “Frankenstein”
6. “Marty Supreme”
7. “Train Dreams”
8. “The Secret Agent”
9. “Bugonia”
10. “F1”
“I feel very confident in my prediction that Warner Bros. will win this category. And that’s about it. ‘Sinners’ ’ history-making total nominations haul clearly indicates strong across-the-board support. But I’m still thinking that ‘One Battle After Another’ will ride its season-long momentum to victory.”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “Hamnet”
5. “Frankenstein”
6. “Sentimental Value”
7. “The Secret Agent”
8. “Bugonia”
9. “Train Dreams”
10. “F1”
“It’s been years since best picture had a victor this certain. Was the title ‘One Battle After Another’ so intimidating that no other movie managed to put up a fight?”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Hamnet”
4. “Marty Supreme”
5. “Frankenstein”
6. “Sentimental Value”
7. “Bugonia”
8. “Train Dreams”
9. “The Secret Agent”
10. “F1”
“None is likely to beat the front-runner, the rollicking ‘One Battle.’ But nipping at its heels are the rich ’30s horror musical ‘Sinners’ and the heart-wrenching ‘Hamnet.’ Zhao’s ode to the power of art will score at the BAFTAs … with several genre films in the mix, academy voters could take the high road.”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Marty Supreme”
4. “Hamnet”
5. “Sentimental Value”
6. “The Secret Agent”
7. “Train Dreams”
8. “Frankenstein”
9. “Bugonia”
10. “F1”
“At this point, ‘One Battle’ feels preordained by precursors, critics’ prizes and general sentiment. The one spoiler could be Warner Bros.’ other big title, ‘Sinners,’ which broke the record for nominations and has remained strong competition for PTA’s 10th film. I’m going ‘OBAA’ but wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Sinners’ upsets.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. “One Battle After Another”
2. “Sinners”
3. “Hamnet”
4. “Marty Supreme”
5. “Sentimental Value”
6. “Frankenstein”
7. “The Secret Agent”
8. “Train Dreams”
9. “Bugonia”
10. “F1”
“ ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ each have a viable path toward winning. Which film prevails with the Producers Guild, a group that uses the same ranked ballot as the academy, will have the edge.”
