MAGA still loves Trump. What does that mean for November?
- Share via
See more from the L.A. Times in Google Search. Set us as preferred
- Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican, was perhaps the most high-profile Trump critic to go down in flames.
- Trump saw his candidates win in Idaho, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Georgia.
Tuesday night, America voted in primary elections and the big winner was President Trump.
One after another, his enemies — and by that I mean anyone who has ever done anything other than grovel — were defeated in elections across the country.
Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican, was perhaps the most high-profile candidate to go down in flames. Massie, you may recall, joined with his California Democratic colleague Ro Khanna to campaign for the release of the Epstein files, which made Trump big-mad since his name is in them a lot.
The Trump-endorsed candidate Ed Gallrein won instead.
“You are ruled by the Epstein class that cares nothing about you,” former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, also a victim of Trump’s ire, posted on social media after Massie’s loss. “Tonight the future of the Republican Party was destroyed.”
But was it? Or is it simply now crystal clear that it is a party that will follow its leader, no matter the consequence — even personal ruin? And if Trump still wields this much power over his base, what does it mean for the November general election?
“Republicans are united behind President Trump,” RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels told Politico. “While the media tries to manufacture division, Republicans remain focused on delivering results for the American people and building momentum heading into 2026.”
As much as I’d like to believe Greene has a point (I can’t believe I’m saying that), all signs instead indicate Pels is, at least mostly, right — the Republican Party is alive and well, by Trump’s standards, anyway, and may be gaining momentum for a November none of us will ever forget.
Tuesday’s proof
Gallrein wasn’t the only Trump-backed Republican to win voter approval. Trump also saw his candidates win in places including Idaho, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Georgia.
And in Texas, Trump threw down another retribution bomb by endorsing state Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. That race will go to a runoff next week, with Paxton’s chances significantly boosted.
And in case there’s any doubt about why Trump is choosing his favorites, just check out his reasoning in his own social media post for that endorsement. Spoiler: It has nothing to do with the good of the country or even the Grand Old Party.
Paxton, Trump wrote, is “someone who has always been extremely loyal to me,” even trying to help Trump overturn the 2020 election results. Meanwhile, Cornyn “was not supportive of me when times were tough.”
So personal loyalty is the name of the game, and Republicans seem more than willing to play it.
Still, there has been some chatter that ousted lawmakers, including Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who just lost the Republican primary to a Trump candidate, could gum up the works for Trump in their remaining months. Cassidy voted with Democrats this week on a war powers resolution to at least slow down Trump’s Iran offensive.
Personally, I wouldn’t bet on it. Recent polls have shown Trump’s approval ratings to be down in the dumps, but not with Republicans. They still love this guy.
A poll by Echelon Insights this week found that 74% of GOP voters view Trump favorably. That’s about the same percentage of people who love Costco and NASA, and who doesn’t love Costco and NASA?
Add to that a Wednesday poll from Quinnipiac University that found that while 64% of voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling the economy, 73% of Republicans actually approve — for real. They are OK with $6 gas and beef priced like gold.
Granted, that’s down from 88% of Republicans loving this economy a month ago, but still, three-quarters of Trump’s base backs this dumpster fire of financial mismanagement and looting.
In the same poll, 80% of respondents said congressional Republicans should be doing more to work with Trump, while 13% said they should be standing up to him.
Folks, Republicans are not turning away from this president — they are embracing not a party, but his one-man rule, and doing it with a big, warm bear hug.
Get to November
What does all that mean for the November election? Not a whole lot of good for Democrats, but I’ll start with one possible bright spot: Texas.
Yes, Texas — where, if Paxton does beat Cornyn, Democrats will do a happy dance. That’s because Paxton is seen as the more extreme candidate, plagued by scandal, and would be running against the increasingly popular everyman-preacher man James Talarico. If Talarico prevails, he would be the first Democrat to win a statewide office in the Lone Star State since the 1990s.
But on the national front, there is very little reason to believe any Republicans will break with Trump, as voters or candidates. That means it will come down to gerrymandering and independents, neither of which is especially hopeful for Democrats.
In the Echelon poll, 68% of independent voters said they believed the country was on the “wrong track,” with more than one-third citing the economy as their most important issue. The Quinnipiac poll found that only 26% of independent voters who responded approve of how Trump is handling the job of president.
But.
Both polls found independent voters also did not approve of the job Democrats are doing in Congress — almost three-quarters had a bad impression. Despite all of the middle-ground voter animus toward Trump and those he backs, Democrats apparently have done almost nothing to capitalize on it.
The takeaway is that the voters who will decide in November — at least in the remaining places where maps are not rigged — really don’t like any of their choices, and may just hold their noses and vote for whoever seems least-worst.
If he finds a way to bring prices down, that could be Trump‘s GOP.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Trump’s Spring Revenge Tour Routed G.O.P. Foes. But Fall Headwinds Loom.
The deep dive: A gray wolf has entered Sequoia National Park for the first time in a century
The L.A. Times Special: San Diego attackers’ hate manifesto targeted many groups, sought ‘destruction of political system,’ sources say
Stay Golden,
Anita Chabria
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Insights
L.A. Times Insights delivers AI-generated analysis on Voices content to offer all points of view. Insights does not appear on any news articles.
Viewpoint
Perspectives
The following AI-generated content is powered by Perplexity. The Los Angeles Times editorial staff does not create or edit the content.
Ideas expressed in the piece
- The article argues that Trump’s sweeping success in recent Republican primaries, including the defeat of figures such as Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky and Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana by Trump-endorsed challengers, shows that the GOP remains firmly under Trump’s control and is willing to punish anyone who falls short of total fealty.
- It contends that Trump’s endorsements are driven primarily by personal loyalty rather than policy or party interest, as illustrated by the backing of Texas Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn largely because Paxton tried to help overturn the 2020 election while Cornyn did not, reinforcing the idea that Trump is running a loyalty test, not a traditional party.
- The piece suggests that, despite Trump’s sinking national approval ratings, Republican voters remain intensely loyal: recent polling shows roughly three-quarters of GOP voters view Trump favorably and a similar share approve of his handling of the economy, even amid high prices for gas and food, indicating that the base is willing to tolerate economic pain and controversy to keep Trump in power.
- It notes that most Republican respondents in one poll want congressional Republicans to work more closely with Trump rather than stand up to him, which the article interprets as an embrace of one-man rule over internal party checks, making it unlikely that lame-duck or outgoing GOP lawmakers will meaningfully resist Trump on issues such as the war in Iran.
- Turning to November, the column argues that Trump’s grip on the GOP leaves little room for Republican elites or voters to break with him in the general election, meaning the outcome will largely hinge on independent voters and the extent of gerrymandering, both of which the article sees as giving Republicans a structural edge.
- At the same time, the article highlights that independents are deeply unhappy with both Trump and Democrats in Congress—seeing the country as on the wrong track and blaming the economy—yet concludes Democrats have failed to capitalize on that discontent, raising the prospect that many swing voters will reluctantly choose “least-worst” Republicans if prices fall or conditions improve even slightly.
- The column identifies one potential bright spot for Democrats in Texas, where a Paxton victory over Cornyn could hand Democrats a better chance in a general election against a scandal-plagued, hard-right nominee, but maintains that such openings are exceptions within a broader national landscape where Trump’s enduring popularity with MAGA-aligned Republicans could fuel significant GOP gains in November.
Different views on the topic
- In contrast, a Brookings Institution analysis argues that, while Trump’s MAGA base remains loyal, his overall political position has weakened significantly: national job approval has fallen to around 40% with 57% disapproving, reflecting broad public dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and the war in Iran and suggesting a challenging midterm environment for Republicans rather than a clear advantage[2].
- That analysis contends that current generic-ballot polling, which shows Democrats leading House races by about 6 points, implies an 8.5-point swing toward Democrats compared with 2024, enough—if sustained—to produce substantial Democratic gains and likely a new Democratic majority in the House, undercutting the notion that Trump’s dominance in GOP primaries translates into general-election strength[2].
- Moreover, Brookings emphasizes that the Republican coalition is not uniformly enthusiastic about Trump: non-MAGA Republicans, independents, young adults and Hispanic voters show very low approval of his presidency, often in the 20%–30% range, and Democrats hold large generic-ballot leads among these groups, suggesting that fissures within the broader center-right electorate could constrain Trump’s power in November[2].
- The same piece notes that Democrats appear more motivated to vote than Republicans, raising the possibility that an energized Democratic electorate—angry over Trump’s conduct and policy choices—could offset or overwhelm the enthusiasm of Trump’s base, even in districts where Republicans currently hold structural advantages[2].
- A major study by More in Common offers a different challenge to the article’s framing by arguing that Trump’s support is not a singular “cult” but a coalition of four distinct groups—MAGA Hardliners, Anti-Woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans and the Reluctant Right—each with its own priorities and level of devotion, indicating that the GOP is more ideologically and temperamentally diverse than a pure loyalty narrative suggests[3].
- That research finds that only a minority of Trump voters say that identifying as part of the MAGA movement is important, while many Mainline Republicans and the Reluctant Right support Trump transactionally—for traditional conservative policies or as the “less bad” option—implying that significant segments of his coalition could peel away if economic conditions worsen further or if an appealing alternative emerges[3].
- Additionally, a YouGov analysis of polling on U.S. alliances contends that MAGA Republicans’ views can shift depending on how issues are framed: when asked first about other countries helping the U.S., MAGA respondents become more supportive of the U.S. aiding its allies, suggesting that even among staunch Trump supporters, attitudes are influenced by context and reciprocity norms rather than uncritical alignment with any single leader’s posture[1].
- Finally, while the article portrays gerrymandering largely as a fixed advantage for Republicans, advocacy groups such as Indivisible argue that mid-decade Republican redistricting maneuvers are being met with calls for “responsive redistricting” in Democratic-led states and with organized public opposition, asserting that aggressive counter-mapping, legal challenges and grassroots mobilization can limit or neutralize a “permanent MAGA majority” in the House[4].
