Can World Cup Dreams Overcome Global Reality?
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How local business leaders are working to elude the repercussions of geopolitical strife
Los Angeles businesses have spent years preparing for a once-in-a-generation opportunity: hosting matches for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Early projections painted a windfall scenario, with nearly $900 million in economic impact expected across Los Angeles County and more than $500 million in direct visitor spending.
But as summer approaches, a more complicated picture is emerging. Global instability, economic uncertainty and shifting travel patterns are colliding with those optimistic forecasts – raising a pressing question for L.A.’s tourism-dependent businesses: Will the crowds actually come?
A Demand Surge – But Not Where Expected
On paper, the World Cup remains a massive draw. More than 6 million fans are still expected to travel across North America for the tournament, and Los Angeles – hosting multiple marquee matches at SoFi Stadium – should be a centerpiece.
Yet early indicators suggest that travel demand to the United States, including Southern California, is softer than many had hoped. International arrivals to the U.S. declined in 2025 and are still lagging pre-pandemic levels, weighed down by visa hurdles, high costs and geopolitical tensions.
Even more concerning for local operators: Hotel occupancy for World Cup dates in U.S. host cities has reportedly remained surprisingly low in early booking windows – despite sharp increases in room rates.
This disconnect – high prices but uneven bookings – suggests hesitation among international travelers, many of whom are opting for alternative destinations.
The Global Context: Travel Patterns Shift
Global strife is playing a measurable role. Ongoing conflicts and geopolitical uncertainty have already reshaped travel flows worldwide. For example, instability in parts of the Middle East has pushed European travelers toward “safer” or more predictable destinations, including Western Europe and the Caribbean.
At the same time, broader tensions – ranging from trade disputes to political rhetoric – have dampened enthusiasm for U.S. travel in key markets. Canada, traditionally one of California’s largest sources of visitors, saw a sharp decline in travel amid diplomatic friction in 2025.
For Los Angeles, which relies heavily on international tourism, these shifts are particularly impactful. International passenger traffic through LAX remains below 2019 levels, reflecting both structural and geopolitical headwinds.
Local Reality: A Tourism Market Still Recovering
In some areas, visitor numbers dropped sharply in 2025, with declines in foot traffic hitting iconic districts like Hollywood particularly hard.
That context makes the World Cup less of a bonus and more of a critical inflection point. Many businesses – from hotels and restaurants to retailers and transportation providers – are counting on a strong summer to offset recent volatility.
A Pricing Problem?
One of the paradoxes facing L.A. businesses is pricing. Anticipating a surge in demand, hotels and short-term rental hosts have significantly raised rates. In some cases, nightly prices have jumped by 50% or more compared to typical periods.
While this strategy aims to maximize revenue during peak demand, it may also be deterring cost-sensitive travelers – especially when competing destinations like Mexico and Canada offer lower prices and fewer logistical barriers.
This dynamic creates a risk: If bookings don’t materialize at expected levels, businesses could be forced into last-minute discounting, eroding margins.
How L.A. Businesses Are Adapting
Faced with uncertainty, many Los Angeles-area businesses are shifting strategies to make Southern California more appealing – and accessible – this summer.
- Expanding Accommodation Options: Short-term rental platforms are ramping up supply to meet anticipated demand. Incentive programs are encouraging new hosts to enter the market, helping to address potential lodging shortages while offering more price points for visitors.
- Bundling Experiences: Hotels and tourism operators are increasingly packaging World Cup tickets with local experiences – beach outings, studio tours and culinary events – to differentiate L.A. from other host cities. The goal is to position Southern California as a full vacation destination, not just a match venue.
- Targeting Domestic Travelers: With international travel lagging, many businesses are doubling down on U.S. visitors. Regional marketing campaigns are emphasizing drivable tourism from California and neighboring states, aiming to fill gaps left by overseas travelers.
- Flexible Pricing and Promotions: Some operators are beginning to adjust pricing strategies, offering early-bird deals, extended-stay discounts and bundled packages to stimulate bookings ahead of the tournament.
- Reputation and Perception Management: Tourism officials and business groups are also working to counter negative perceptions – whether tied to safety concerns, costs or recent disasters – by emphasizing that the vast majority of Los Angeles remains open, vibrant and ready for visitors.
Cautious Optimism
Despite the challenges, industry leaders are not writing off the World Cup’s potential impact. Even modest gains – such as a projected 1-2% lift in hotel revenue metrics – could provide a meaningful boost after several sluggish years.
And in the longer term, the global spotlight may still deliver lasting benefits. The exposure generated by the World Cup is expected to drive sustained tourism growth in the years leading up to the 2028 Olympics.
For now, however, L.A. businesses are navigating a delicate balancing act: preparing for a surge that may still come, while hedging against a global environment that has made travel more unpredictable than ever.
The World Cup may still bring millions to Southern California – but in 2026, optimism alone is no longer enough to guarantee it.
Trickle-Down Tourism
The Los Angeles Tourism & Convention Board (Los Angeles Tourism), which serves as an official Los Angeles World Cup Host City Supporter and Official Tourism Board Promoter, is stepping up in unique ways to help boost excitement for the World Cup and help support the local businesses that have bet on the games. The organization recently launched a global advertising campaign, inviting fans around the world to “Start Your World Cup Experience in L.A.”
“As we prepare for one of the biggest years in our city’s history, this campaign reflects our commitment to the thousands of Angelenos and hundreds of local businesses who depend on tourism,” said Eileen Hanson, chief marketing officer, Los Angeles Tourism. “As an official Los Angeles World Cup Host City Supporter, the World Cup offers a moment to showcase the creativity, diversity and spirit that sets Los Angeles apart, and we’re proud to welcome fans as they begin their journeys here.”
Running across key domestic and international markets – including the United Kingdom, Australia, Mexico, South Korea and U.S. cities such as New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Phoenix, Portland, Detroit, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Sacramento and Washington, DC – the campaign features a comprehensive mix of TV, CTV, digital display, search, social media and large-format out-of-home placements designed to inspire travel ahead of this historic moment.
Los Angeles Tourism is also partnering with brands that fans recognize and trust. In Australia, Los Angeles Tourism is collaborating with United Airlines to promote service to Los Angeles through a targeted paid media investment focusing on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Volaris in Mexico will continue operating a flight with Los Angeles branding and will be integrated into a 360-campaign with Televisa. In South Korea, the campaign comes to life through a 3D billboard in Seoul’s iconic K-Pop Square, featuring select LAFC players, including international superstar Son Heung-Min.
Los Angeles Tourism has also been working closely with OneFootball, a digital platform with more than 645 million monthly fans connecting L.A. to one of the world’s most passionate online football communities.
At the heart of the campaign is a multilingual resource hub at DiscoverLA.com/FIFAWorldCupLA, where visitors can explore neighborhood itineraries, cultural guides and the popular culinary feature on A Taste of the World Cup in L.A. L.A. Tourism has also worked closely with the Los Angeles World Cup 2026 Host Committee to curate a 39-Day Fan Experience Guide and calendar highlighting community and fan events, as well as the official Los Angeles World Cup 26 Fan Zones.
The hospitality industry has also been enthusiastically preparing for the 2026 FIFA World Cup – but new findings from OysterLink suggest expectations are becoming more measured than initially anticipated.
Based on an analysis of recent hotel forecasts, booking data and industry reports, OysterLink found that while the tournament is still expected to drive demand, the overall uplift may fall short of early projections.
National RevPAR is forecast to increase by just 1.7% during the tournament months, a modest gain compared to previous World Cup cycles, according to CoStar.
Early booking trends also show that demand is coming in lower than expected. In some markets, hotels have reported picking up only a small portion of previously reserved FIFA room blocks, with estimates as low as 15% occupancy for those allocations. As a result, many operators are shifting away from rigid event-based pricing strategies and reopening inventory to general travelers.
“The industry is clearly preparing, but it’s no longer preparing for a guaranteed surge,” said Milos Eric, co-founder and general manager at OysterLink. “What we’re seeing is a pivot toward flexibility. Hotels are adjusting rates, relaxing booking restrictions and treating this more like a high-demand summer period rather than a once-in-a-generation windfall.”
Several external factors are contributing to the uncertainty. International travel – historically a major driver of World Cup spending – has shown signs of softness, with barriers such as visa processing, geopolitical tensions and higher travel costs potentially limiting inbound visitors. This shift could result in a heavier reliance on domestic travelers, who typically spend less per trip.
Despite these challenges, the outlook is not without opportunity. OysterLink notes that demand is likely to concentrate around match days and key cities, rather than sustaining evenly throughout the tournament. This could create a “two-phase” pattern, with a slower start followed by stronger performance during the knockout stages.
“The World Cup will still deliver meaningful business for the industry,” Eric added. “But success will depend less on sheer volume and more on how well operators adapt in real time.”
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